All Epsilon Theory Content

All Epsilon Theory Content

 

Everything we have published at Epsilon Theory since 2013, an archive of more than 1,000 evergreen notes.

The Front

By Rusty Guinn | March 26, 2019 | 2 Comments

We take a break from Fiat News to talk about the much simpler, much more straightforward ways that we are told how to think.

They’re not new, but in the Widening Gyre of our current political Zeitgeist, they are becoming the main attraction.

The Zeitgeist – 3.26.2019

By Ben Hunt | March 26, 2019 | 3 Comments

Yield curve alert! We have a BLARING SIREN that is FLASHING … … ummm, amber. I mean, AMBER! And $600 billion in healthcare insurance market cap will be WIPED OUT if Dems have their way!

They’re coming to get you, Barbara!

The Epsilon Strategy

By Ben Hunt | March 25, 2019 | 11 Comments

We can be better investors. Not by playing the cards we’re dealt any harder. But by playing the other players at the table a lot smarter.

It’s a new technology applied to an old investment strategy. It’s a new way to think about money flows and investor behaviors.

The Zeitgeist Weekend Edition – 3.24.2019

By Rusty Guinn | March 24, 2019 | 5 Comments

The weekend Zeitgeist, in which the Gray Lady’s news coverage gets even grayer, everybody loves Beto, Rusty discovers a new Hall of Fame about which he has opinions, and abstracted thinking in cheese research.

Free-Range Kids / Free-Range Capitalism

By Rusty Guinn | March 23, 2019 | 7 Comments

Helicopter parenting produces kids whose ability to evaluate and take risks has been crippled. If we’re not careful, helicopter parenting from policy-makers will do the same to us as investors.

The Zeitgeist – 3.22.2019

By Rusty Guinn | March 22, 2019 | 4 Comments

In which we are told that China is not the AI-powered dystopia we we were looking for, we encounter the “seen to” Fiat News tell in the wild, and we take a longer look at something over the better part of…an evening?

All the Fiat News that’s fit to scrutinize.

The Zeitgeist – 3.21.2019

By Ben Hunt | March 21, 2019 | 0 Comments

“It’s a trap!” This and other evergreen memes of Fiat News, yours for the plucking in today’s Zeitgeist.

It’s not impossible for market volatility to spike massively through some deflationary shock to the financial system like a global recession or a China-driven credit crisis or an Italy-driven euro crisis. What’s impossible is TO GET PAID for taking out an insurance policy against volatility spikes from these deflationary shocks.

Admiring the Problem

By Rusty Guinn | March 20, 2019 | 9 Comments

One of the Missionary’s most powerful tools is admiring the unsolvable problem – finding new ways of describing what’s wrong without an honest effort to actually fix it.

With apologies, add this to the list of things that you will now see everywhere.

The Zeitgeist – 3.20.2019

By Ben Hunt | March 20, 2019 | 4 Comments

Jay Powell channels Arthur Burns, a Fed model for congressional budget debates, and a smorgasbord of Boeing bagholder quotes. All in a day’s work for the Zeitgeist!

Office Hours – 3.19.2019

By Rusty Guinn | March 19, 2019 | Comments Off on Office Hours – 3.19.2019

In this Office Hours, Ben and Rusty dig into the transition of capital markets into political utilities – this time with a special focus on private markets.

The Zeitgeist – 3.19.2019

By Rusty Guinn | March 19, 2019 | 6 Comments

Today’s Zeitgeist is about tweet nudges, massive law partner payouts, a big reason for massive law partner payouts, your closet, the people who want to sell you…rope, and more.

Is ESG Now Part of the Zeitgeist?

By Rusty Guinn | March 18, 2019 | Comments Off on Is ESG Now Part of the Zeitgeist?

In this ET Pro In Focus note, we explore the Narrative structure of ESG and SRI investing. Our question: is it finally part of the Zeitgeist, or a trend that will continue to come and go?

Good Luck!

By Rusty Guinn | March 18, 2019 | 4 Comments

Ben has already talked about the biggest and most important thing we can do in the face of the admissions bribery scandal.

But many remain convinced that this scandal is an inflection point, a change in the Zeitgeist. It isn’t. But that doesn’t mean we can’t be watching for our opportunity to weaken the influence of the Church of Credential.

The Zeitgeist – 3.18.2019

By Ben Hunt | March 18, 2019 | 1 Comment

The Lyft IPO prospectus is out today, so we’re sure to hear plenty of dueling banjos in financial media over the next few weeks and months. It was a fun vacation for Burt Reynolds and the boys at the start of that movie.

Also, more on ESG and other myths in today’s Zeitgeist.

The Ministry of Rites and the Compassionate Man

By Ben Hunt | March 17, 2019 | 14 Comments

“Oh, little Jimmy is going to 20-Years-Ago-This-Was-A-Second-Rate-University? I hear really good things about that school. Congratulations!”

“Thanks! We’re all very pleased. Everyone except my bank account, that is. Hahaha!”

It’s true, everyone is VERY pleased by the current system. Prestige university credentialing is a steam valve … \whispers\ just like elections.

The Zeitgeist Weekend Edition – 3.16.2019

By Rusty Guinn | March 16, 2019 | 5 Comments

First it’s a healthy reminder of the narrative strength of health care costs. Then it’s a brief education on the narratives of elite universities.

But mostly it’s Fiat News. Lots and lots of Fiat News.

The Zeitgeist – 3.15.2019

By Ben Hunt | March 15, 2019 | 4 Comments

Uncle Wilbur’s MNPI trades on his personal account may get a pass, but that darn census will be the ruin of him.

Also, announcing VaxDirectClub … the safe and cost-effective way to administer your kids’ immunizations from the convenience of your own home!

The Zeitgeist – 3.14.2019

By Ben Hunt | March 14, 2019 | 15 Comments

TFW a Chinese “social video and online dating specialist” called Momo just isn’t momentum-y enough for you, but the Raccoon tandem of Fox Business and Motley Fool is there to help you out with “even better buys”.

Plus the Stanford shadow economy for profs, the War against Big Everything, and all the Fiat News that’s fit to read.

The Zeitgeist – 3.13.2019

By Rusty Guinn | March 13, 2019 | 6 Comments

Honestly, you could replace 90% of the daily news with a collection of Mitch Hedberg one-liners.

“People either love me or hate me … or they think I’m okay.”

Our modern addiction? Fiat News.

In the Trenches: Command and Control

By Peter Cecchini | March 12, 2019 | 11 Comments

It all started with the Maestro, Alan Greenspan, and his determination to create a Great Moderation. And it was all going so swimmingly, too, until the Great Disaster of 2008.

Now that there’s so little central banks can do, they are dead set on preventing another downturn before it even starts. So how does risk ‘price’ in capital markets when the cost of capital is constantly set too low? It doesn’t.