All Epsilon Theory Content
Everything we have published at Epsilon Theory since 2013, an archive of more than 1,000 evergreen notes.
Fiduciary standards, prudent man rules and client sensibilities compel us toward fervent pursuit of “alignment.” There’s just one little problem: we can never be aligned with our agents.
It’s the November 19th, 2019 edition of Office Hours! Be sure to join Ben and Rusty for a discussion of all things Narrative in the world of politics and markets.
I’m a fan of FedEx the company and Fred Smith the founder. I think they are both crown jewels of Western capitalism.
But if I hear another lecture from Fred Smith and his fellow billionaires on trickle-down tax cuts and the “benefits to the United States economy, especially lower and middle class wage earners”, I’m going to lose it.
To receive a free full-text email of The Zeitgeist whenever we publish to the website, please sign up here. You’ll get two or three of these emails every…
I’m old enough to remember when Donald Trump, the President-elect of the United States, and Masayoshi Son, CEO of Softbank, had an impromptu press conference in the Trump Tower lobby to trumpet the FIFTY THOUSAND JOBS and FIFTY BILLION DOLLAR INVESTMENT that Softbank would be bringing to the US.
All based on a powerpoint deck.
I think it’s impossible to separate management self-enrichment through stock-based comp from the practice of stock buybacks.
The missionaries are out, and guess what? They want you to do a lot of trading and portfolio repositioning. How thoughtful!
Today’s Zeitgeist brought back a blast from the past, an early encounter with the distinction between narrative and other, more common, measures of what the crowd thinks.
One day we will recognize the defining Zeitgeist of the Obama/Trump years as an unparalleled transfer of wealth to the managerial class.
Every now and then we come across an article or blog post that’s directly relevant to what we’re trying to say on Epsilon Theory, but is too big and thoughtful to be carved up for a Mailbag note or Zeitgeist post.
Make / Protect / Teach is a Big Tent.
In which Ben and Rusty discuss the three Ps of the narrative of a functioning government – and why their cartoons are being stretched to the limit.
The NBA, Blizzard and others are in hot water after kowtowing to the Chinese government. America will have forgotten about both within weeks. But the awareness of just how long the CCP’s reach has become? That can’t be unseen.
If Carl Icahn calls up the CEO of GM and asks her how the UAW talks are going, it is illegal for Mary Barra to tell him anything that she does not also tell everyone else.
If Carl Icahn calls up the President of the United States and asks him how the China talks are going, it is perfectly legal for Donald Trump to tell him whatever he likes without obligation to tell anyone else.
I believe that we are on the cusp of the Long Now becoming irreversible. Or at least irreversible without a cataclysmic Fall.
Why? Because they have mastered the art of stealing our tells. At scale.
Here’s how we start to confound the stolen tells. At scale.
Marc Benioff, the billionaire CEO of Salesforce.com, says we need a New Capitalism … a kinder and gentler capitalism to rectify our modern culture of greed and massive wealth inequality.
Ray Dalio, the billionaire CIO of Bridgewater, says the same thing.
I think they’re both right.
I also think they should STFU.
“Until an hour before the Devil fell, God thought him beautiful in Heaven.”
That’s my fave Arthur Miller quote, from The Crucible.
Our Devil is inflation, and today we think him beautiful in Heaven. You’re not ready for the Fall.
Every US company with Chinese consumer-facing products is going to be forced to make a choice. Do you want to preserve your authenticity and your brand, or do you want to preserve your earnings guidance and share price?
Choose one. You can’t have both.
No one will believe me when I say this, but it’s the truth: this is bigger than tariffs.
They keep us sick, you know.
They keep us hooked on this framing of something-something Republicans vs. Democrats.
The cure? Take back your distance.
You’ll find your local library to be the perfect place to start.
Yeah, yeah … I know that the Deep State is a powerful adversary. Or at least that’s what my MAGA buddies on twitter keep shouting at me.
But I’ll take the Deep State as an enemy any day compared to Steve Schwarzman and the rest of the Private Equity Tong looking to keep their carried interest tax treatment.
I bet Elizabeth Warren feels the same way.