All Epsilon Theory Content
Everything we have published at Epsilon Theory since 2013, an archive of more than 1,000 evergreen notes.
When people stop asking “How much worse is this going to get” and start asking “How much longer is this going to last”, things really start changing.
But we can change that, too.
Levering up a portfolio based on a model that we know cannot act as a representation of the state of the world is perilous.
Doing the same with a country is far, far worse.
The structurally bullish will warn us against failure of nerve. The traders will warn us against hesitation. The structurally bearish will warn us about being unable to shift into a defensive shape. But what we should be worried about now is a lack of imagination.
The NYC healthcare system – one of the finest in the world – is about to be slammed beyond anything they have ever seen. ER visits and patient testing is where it begins. It moves from there through the system, ending in ICU wards. The process is like a python swallowing a pig, except this isn’t a pig. It’s a whale.
For the first time our federal government is treating the fight against this virus like the war that it is.
Is it pathetic and sad and a corrupt betrayal of the public trust that it took this long? Absolutely.
But now here we go. And there is no country in the world that mobilizes for war more effectively than the United States.
Covid-19 is a fertile ground for narratives and missionaries of all kinds – from politicians to central banks, corporate leaders and financial media pundits. Join us as we discuss them.
In a potential recession, need isn’t evenly distributed. In a pandemic, that’s even more true. The time to start helping is now.
Originally published in Quillette, it’s the Epsilon Theory take on Don’t Test, Don’t Tell” – the single most incompetent, corrupt public health policy of my lifetime.
In 1995 we crossed a line in music.
In 2009 we crossed that line in markets.
In 2016 we crossed that line in politics.
Music charted the way back. Let’s listen to its lesson.
After a Countrywide earnings call in 2008, I trusted NO ONE in government or Wall Street to tell the truth about the mortgage crisis.
And that’s the way I feel about COVID-19 today.
The CDC’s Don’t Test, Don’t Tell policy came crashing down last night. So did Trump’s “buh, buh the flu” and “Yay, Containment!” narratives.
Now let’s get to work preparing for the fight to come.
Not in panic. Not in fear. But with resolve, sacrifice and righteous anger for those who would use us instrumentally for their own political ends.
Clear Eyes. Full Hearts. Can’t lose.
Second Foundation Partners is looking for a new member of the team to help us spearhead the development of technologies for Narrative analysis.
Containment has failed. And so now we must fight.
That means doing everything possible to bolster our healthcare systems BEFORE the need overwhelms the capacity.
That means calling out our leaders for their corrupt political responses to date, and forcing them through our outcry to adopt an effective virus-fighting policy for OUR benefit, not theirs.
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This Office Hours is all about Coronavirus, except it’s not – it’s all about how institutions who solve for narrative outcomes invariably create bad results in the Real World.
Within a few months, the reality of COVID-19 will overtake the propaganda of the CCP and their toadies at the World Health Organization, as real-world companies begin making real-world economic decisions to maintain their enterprises in the face of a real-world threat.
Those decisions will be led by sports franchises.
To date, WHO leadership has simply been part of the Chinese Narrative Machine.
It’s not just a betrayal of the researchers and clinicians who do important work under WHO auspices. It’s a betrayal of the world.
Our social institutions require of us many songs. One of those songs is about the roots of poverty in immorality. If we’re going to stop singing their songs, this may be a good place to start.