...

All Epsilon Theory Content

All Epsilon Theory Content

 

Everything we have published at Epsilon Theory since 2013, an archive of more than 1,000 evergreen notes.

“Quantile Tracking Errors (QuTE)” by Aguilar, Chengan, and Custovic

By Academic Research Author | October 16, 2020 | 0 Comments

Aguilar, Chengan and Custovic dig into the concept of “tracking error” and find that current measures do a poor job of handling skewness and kurtosis. They propose a new approach to calculating tracking error – Quantile Tracking Errors (QuTE) – to address this weakness in traditional measures.

Meta Information

By Ben Hunt | October 15, 2020 | 8 Comments

Sometimes a grift isn’t in what you say, but in the difference in what you say to different audiences.

It’s not the information. It’s the meta information.

Office Hours – 10.13.2020

By Rusty Guinn | October 13, 2020 | Comments Off on Office Hours – 10.13.2020

It’s the October 13th Office Hours, where Ben and Rusty discuss all things narrative in an interactive format.

The Frustrated Money Manager

By Ben Hunt | October 8, 2020 | 9 Comments

The frustrated money manager is almost always a smart, accomplished professional in his own field who believes VERY much in the existence of The Smart Money ™.

The frustrated money manager is almost always a liiiittttle bit on the make.

Like a Vatican cardinal.

Fell on Black Days

By Ben Hunt | October 5, 2020 | 27 Comments

2020 has awakened us to the Black Days constructed while we slept.

Now we act, and not just to avoid the worst excesses of the Trumpist clownshow or the Socialist lunacies.

Now we change the entire freakin’ world.

For ourselves, yes. For our children, even more.

Scapegoating the Zeitgeist

By Ben Hunt | October 2, 2020 | 5 Comments

One day we will recognize the defining Zeitgeist of the post-GFC Obama/Trump years for what it is: an unparalleled transfer of wealth to the managerial class.

This Wall Street Journal article is not an attack on that system. It is a defense. It is telling you that the system is fine … we just need to do something about these bad apple CEOs.

Hook, Line and Sinker

By Rusty Guinn | October 1, 2020 | 9 Comments

It is a literal golden age for CEOs whose talent is the creation and propagation of narratives.

Why? Because it works. And it works because we have accepted a financial and business media that has been redesigned into a cheering section.

TLDR: The Projection Racket (Part 2)

By Rusty Guinn | September 28, 2020 | 1 Comment

This is a short-form summary of our long-form note The Projection Racket (Part 2), located here. While it attempts to present the most accurate picture…

The Projection Racket, Pt. 2

By Rusty Guinn | September 28, 2020 | 28 Comments

The Projection Rackets will say that the solution to two-party dominance and the erosion of political self-determination is, like everything else, is to vote. Express yourself! Don’t you believe in democracy?

They are wrong. We, the people, CAN fix this. And if we want it enough, we will.

Why Am I Reading This Now?

By Ben Hunt | September 25, 2020 | 8 Comments

Yesterday, 5 GOP Senators wrote a letter to Netflix, saying that their plan to adapt Liu Cixin’s “The Three Body Problem” for TV/film amounted to “complicity” with the CCP and their horrific mistreatment of the Uyghurs.

Why am I reading this NOW?

Extinction Event

By Harper Hunt | September 24, 2020 | 0 Comments

Jonathan Plotkin is a longtime ET reader and brilliant cartoonist. For years he’s been sending Ben illustrations inspired by our notes and we’ve been dying…

Brave New World

By Peter Cecchini | September 23, 2020 | 2 Comments

It may be a brave new world of Davey Day Trader, but it’s not enough to convince yours truly to drink Huxley’s soma. Or the Fed’s SOMA (System Open Market Account).

The Welding Shut of the American Mind

By Ben Hunt | September 21, 2020 | 32 Comments

The closing of the American mind is evolving into its next stage: the welding shut of the American mind.

What’s the difference between closing and welding shut? A closed door can be opened. A welded shut door cannot. We can’t save the minds already lost. We can only prevent our OWN minds from being welded shut.

And we can. Together.

The UNITED States of America

By Ben Hunt | September 19, 2020 | 6 Comments

My RBG story …

I thought she’d be all about women’s rights and legal theory this and legal theory that. I was SO wrong.

RBG’s death is an enormous loss for the UNITED States of America.

Many People Say

By Ben Hunt | September 16, 2020 | 24 Comments

The go-to move by sophists like Vox and Trump is to claim that “many people” are asserting their made-up premise that justifies an otherwise ludicrous position.

Why do they do this? Because it works.

Why does it work? Because Common Knowledge game. Because of the power of the crowd watching the crowd.

Office Hours – 9.15.2020

By Rusty Guinn | September 15, 2020 | Comments Off on Office Hours – 9.15.2020

In today’s episode, it’s all about BITFD and the almost hilarious extremes to which The Long Now has infected our financial world. Don’t forget to…

The Projection Racket, Pt. 1

By Rusty Guinn | September 14, 2020 | 23 Comments

Some of us are uncomfortable with BITFD, and that’s OK. Small-c conservatives should be uncomfortable. Small-l liberals should be uncomfortable.

They should also get on board.

This is a series about why.

Mailbag – Lucifer’s Hammer Edition

By Ben Hunt | September 11, 2020 | 8 Comments

It’s been a full year since I wrote my last Mailbag note, which is kinda pathetic.

Well, better late than never. Reader comments and emails following our publication of Lucifer’s Hammer have been amazing, and it would be a disservice to the Pack if I didn’t collect some of them here. Enjoy!

Invisible Threads: Matrix Edition

By Ben Hunt | September 9, 2020 | 9 Comments

I’m not saying that we all have to become volatility traders to survive in the market jungle today, any more than we all have to become game theorists to avoid being the sucker at the Fed’s communication policy table.

But if you’re a traditional investor whose sandbox includes big markets like the S&P 500, then you’re only disadvantaging yourself by ignoring this stuff.

A Society of Tinkerers

By Luis Perez-Breva | September 4, 2020 | 12 Comments

We don’t need more minimally viable products.

We need more maximally viable organizations attacking big problems with a tinkerer’s mindset and a capitalist’s goals.

Guest post by Luis Perez-Breva, faculty director at MIT Innovation Teams.