...

All Epsilon Theory Content

All Epsilon Theory Content

 

Everything we have published at Epsilon Theory since 2013, an archive of more than 1,000 evergreen notes.

A Change in the Water

By Ben Hunt | March 3, 2021 | 3 Comments

Increasingly, the Common Knowledge of our investment world – what everyone knows that everyone knows – is that inflation is a problem and you should be focused on it.

The Opposite of 2008

By Ben Hunt | March 2, 2021 | 27 Comments

In 2008, the US housing market – together with a Fed that thought the subprime crisis was “contained” – delivered the mother of all deflationary shocks to the global economy.

In 2021, the US housing market – together with a Fed that thinks inflationary pressures are “transitory” – risks delivering the mother of all inflationary shocks.

The ET Pack is going to figure this out … together.

ET Podcast #6 – The Business of Wall Street

By Ben Hunt | February 25, 2021 | 0 Comments

Very little investing today is buying and selling shares of common stock in individual companies. Instead, we buy and sell what Wall Street calls “products” – mutual funds, ETFs, options, REITs, SPACs, etc.

Dave Nadig, who literally wrote the book on ETFs, helps us understand the history and future of the business of Wall Street.

The Third Rail Switch

By Rusty Guinn | February 23, 2021 | 21 Comments

In the same way that Narrative shaped a conversation about the role of police going forward in 2020, narrative can shape a conversation about the role of teacher unions and public sector unions more broadly. My money is still on the status quo, but I’ve been wrong before.

Office Hours – 2.16.2021

By Harper Hunt | February 16, 2021 | 0 Comments

Check out our February 2021 Office Hours!

ET Podcast #5 – Gnostic Nationalism

By Ben Hunt | February 16, 2021 | Comments Off on ET Podcast #5 – Gnostic Nationalism

Every political movement has a political philosophy, and for Trumpism and MAGA it’s the Dominion theology of the charismatic/Pentecostal church.

Neither the rise of Donald Trump nor the attack on our Capitol can be understood without an examination of this faith and its constructed political narratives.

Believe it or not.

Danish Food-Safety Expertise for the Win

By Ben Hunt | February 10, 2021 | 27 Comments

WHO beclowns itself with its “fact-finding mission” to Wuhan.

Hammers and Nails

By Rusty Guinn | February 8, 2021 | 16 Comments

When we talk about bias, we usually think about a political bias. But the world of 2021 now supports persistent idiosyncratic biases and frames through which information is passed. How do we ensure that our information consumption habits account for this?

ET Podcast #4 – Hunger Games

By Ben Hunt | February 5, 2021 | 1 Comment

What’s happening with Reddit and Gamestop and Robinhood is a revolution, but not the revolution you think.

This isn’t a “democratization” of Wall Street. You were played. Again.

It’s a revolution in Common Knowledge. And that changes everything. Again.

Hunger Games

By Ben Hunt | February 4, 2021 | 31 Comments

You have been told that the odds are ever in your favor. You have been told this for your entire life. More and more, you suspect this is a lie.

You have been told a new story. A brave story. That by banding together and acting as one, you can “democratize” the stock market. Today, as you see the collapsing stock prices of the companies you supported, you suspect that this was a lie, as well.

When Does the Game Stop?

By Peter Cecchini | February 1, 2021 | 6 Comments

What’s happening now in equity markets isn’t the product of some paradigmatic democratization of finance. It’s just another bubble that will end badly.

Portrait of a Very Serious Investor

By Demonetized | January 29, 2021 | 3 Comments

The Very Serious Investor is quite disturbed by recent goings-on in illiquid, small cap stocks with high short interests. These happenings represent an assault not only on the Very Serious Investor’s livelihood, but his entire cosmology. People placing profitable discretionary trades in the financial markets when they lack even a single Ivy League degree. Imagine!

The Invulnerable Hero*

By Rusty Guinn | January 28, 2021 | 15 Comments

No, the real story here probably isn’t about a revolution against Wall Street. But that doesn’t mean that there isn’t an opportunity to build a movement – right now – to transform it toward fair, free and open markets.

The Zimbabwe Event

By Ben Hunt | January 27, 2021 | 9 Comments

The South African variant virus (501.V2) is not the immediate threat to the United States as the UK variant virus (B117). But 501.V2 has the potential to create a far more powerful narrative – vaccine resistance – that can have a greater market impact than the more pressing issues of B117.

More and more, I think the variant viruses create a tradeable event for markets.

For Leon Black is an Honorable Man

By Ben Hunt | January 26, 2021 | 10 Comments

O judgment! thou art fled to brutish beasts,
And men have lost their reason. Bear with me;
My heart is in the coffin there with the American dream that once was,
And I must pause till it come back to me.

Off Wall Street and Off-Off Wall Street

By Brent Donnelly | January 22, 2021 | 10 Comments

Everything you always wanted to know about r/Wallstreetbets and Gamestop*

*but were afraid to ask

A Different Game

By Rusty Guinn | January 21, 2021 | 5 Comments

The light research poured into sentiment analysis misses one rather important fact: that’s the game we used to play. Today’s Fiat News is a different game altogether.

UK-Variant SARS-CoV-2 Update

By Ben Hunt | January 20, 2021 | 13 Comments

The spread of B117 in a Covid-fatigued country like the US is a profoundly deflationary, risk-off, dollar higher, flight to safety event in real-world.

Does it matter to market-world?

46

By Harper Hunt | January 20, 2021 | 0 Comments

Jonathan Plotkin is a longtime ET reader and brilliant cartoonist. For years he’s been sending Ben illustrations inspired by our notes and we’ve been dying…

Office Hours – 1.19.2021

By Harper Hunt | January 19, 2021 | Comments Off on Office Hours – 1.19.2021

Check out the January 19 Office Hours, where Ben and Rusty talk with you about the latest ET notes.