All Epsilon Theory Content

All Epsilon Theory Content

 

Everything we have published at Epsilon Theory since 2013, an archive of more than 1,000 evergreen notes.

Afghanistan and the Common Knowledge Game

By Ben Hunt | August 23, 2021 | 43 Comments

When the State Department announced on August 12th that it was removing all remaining non-essential personnel from Kabul within 3 days and was considering a relocation of the US embassy to the more defensible airport, the fall of the Afghani government became common knowledge.

And that’s when everything fell apart.

The Afghanistan Narratives

By Rusty Guinn | August 17, 2021 | 41 Comments

We are in the very early innings of the Narrative formation around responsibility for the outcome in Afghanistan. Steel yourselves for weeks of gaslighting from every angle. Hooray.

ET Podcast #13 – Wanting

By Ben Hunt | August 17, 2021 | 2 Comments

It’s the only question that really matters here in the Age of Nudge: why do we want what we want?

A conversation with Luke Burgis, author of “Wanting: The Power of Mimetic Desire in Everyday Life”.

Cursed Knowledge #4: The Olympics

By Harper Hunt | August 16, 2021 | 0 Comments

The Olympic games are known as a time of triumph and glory. The truth is that a lot more work goes into creating and maintaining that narrative than you’d expect.

How a Narrative Goes Viral

By Rusty Guinn | August 10, 2021 | 47 Comments

It is a fact that migrants here illegally have spread, are spreading, and will spread Covid-19.

It is also a narrative. A dangerous, seductive, rapidly spreading narrative that will cause many of us to shut off our minds to other facts, which is what narratives DO.

How do we parse the two?

Sauron Remains Undefeated

By Ben Hunt | August 9, 2021 | 42 Comments

Here’s my take on this weekend’s Senate wrangling over the infrastructure bill, and the implications for crypto.

The US Treasury is the Eye of Sauron — a gigantic panopticon tower that sweeps the world with its unblinking gaze, seeking out the owners of power, i.e. money.

And Sauron remains undefeated.

Nudging State, Noble Lies

By Ben Hunt | August 4, 2021 | 29 Comments

In the world of Nudge, everyone is an ad man, and the government is just the biggest, baddest ad man of them all.

Narrative Machine Webinar

By Harper Hunt | July 29, 2021 | 0 Comments

The recording of the July 2021, Epsilon Theory webinar about The Narrative Machine.

Cursed Knowledge #3: The Molassacre

By Harper Hunt | July 26, 2021 | 4 Comments

The Boston Molassacre was one of the great tragedies of the early 20th century. So why isn’t it treated like one?

Ever Grande

By Marc Rubinstein | July 26, 2021 | 5 Comments

The Chinese real estate developer Evergrande is the epitome of Too Big To Fail. It is truly Ever Grande.

So what happens if it does, in fact, fail?

Enemies Real and Imagined

By Rusty Guinn | July 21, 2021 | 11 Comments

I think there’s a non-zero chance that the delta-variant becomes something that markets really are focused on. Maybe that happens months from now. Maybe days.

But until that happens, the delta-variant narrative explaining markets is a wall of worry, an artificially easy hurdle to climb for a market that only really cares about a dovish Fed sticking to its transitory inflation story.

Welcome to Metaworld

By Rusty Guinn | July 16, 2021 | 28 Comments

The language of practically every topic of any social importance is now defined by people discussing how other people are discussing it. It’s true for the environment, race, politics and now – violent crime.

Welcome to Metaworld.

ET Podcast #12 – Proof of Plant

By Ben Hunt | July 16, 2021 | 0 Comments

I think this is how crypto can change the world. Not as “money” and not as Bitcoin! TM and not as a security and not as this speculative coin versus that speculative coin. Not by facilitating a market of goods, but by facilitating a market of GOOD.

What is Robinhood?

By Marc Rubinstein | July 12, 2021 | 5 Comments

What is Robinhood? It’s the conflation of gambling and investing. Which is … fine. I guess. But spare me the “we’re democratizing finance” BS.

Cursed Knowledge #2: Weinstein and the Oscars

By Harper Hunt | July 5, 2021 | 0 Comments

Harvey Weinstein is a terrible person who did terrible things. But he doesn’t get nearly enough credit, or more accurately blame, for his role in destroying the integrity of the Academy Awards and fundamentally altering how Hollywood makes movies.

I’m So Tired of the Transitory Inflation “Debate”

By Ben Hunt | July 1, 2021 | 16 Comments

When a famous person shakes his or her finger at you, they’re not telling you a fact.

They’re telling you how to think about a fact.

Litigation Finance

By Bruce Packard | June 28, 2021 | 1 Comment

The formation of new “asset classes” and their associated narratives is a fascinating sight.

Using Burford Capital as a case study, new ET contributor Bruce Packard gives us a great primer on litigation-finance-as-an-asset-class.

Day-One Advice for New Hedge Fund Portfolio Managers

By Brent Donnelly | June 25, 2021 | 5 Comments

Over the last 6 months, there’s been a mass influx of new hedge fund PMs, many from bank trading seats leaving for greener (?) pastures. I’ve been in both seats. I’ve had good years and disappointing years. So I present this advice with the utmost humility …

Proof of Plant: A New Vision for Crypto, Pt 1

By Ben Hunt | June 23, 2021 | 39 Comments

I want to change the language of crypto from mining to growing. I do not mean this in a metaphorical sense. I mean a proof-of-plant method for literally growing cryptocurrency tokens as a representation of the value stored in the human cultivation of plants.

Cursed Knowledge #1: The Fast Saga

By Harper Hunt | June 21, 2021 | 11 Comments

The Fast and Furious movies are famous for intense action and ridiculous plots. But the truth about how these stories get made has more to do with the drama happening behind the camera than in front of it.