All Epsilon Theory Content

All Epsilon Theory Content

 

Everything we have published at Epsilon Theory since 2013, an archive of more than 1,000 evergreen notes.

Inflation and the Common Knowledge Game

By Ben Hunt | December 8, 2021 | 80 Comments

At whatever point in time you think inflation will start to fade, you are being too optimistic.

Why? Because common knowledge.

Where do we go from here? To a Man With a Plan, I think. And war.

The Medium is the Message

By Rusty Guinn | November 30, 2021 | 10 Comments

Social media is not just a delivery mechanism for content.

The delivery of content through social media IS the content.

Defund the World Health Organization

By Ben Hunt | November 29, 2021 | 12 Comments

Skipping the Greek letter Xi in naming the latest Covid variant is ridiculous, not dangerous.

What’s dangerous is WHO leadership placing Chinese political interests ahead of global health interests.

Critical State Theory

By Ben Hunt | November 24, 2021 | 14 Comments

This note is about the Narrative process that makes it so politically difficult to say that yes, parents are responsible for their children’s education AND yes, our children should be taught the fact of embedded racism in our nation’s history.

And why it’s so important that we do so, anyway.

Cursed Knowledge #6: F*ck Almonds

By Harper Hunt | November 16, 2021 | 0 Comments

Move over Hollywood! Almonds are one of the most lucrative and fastest growing industries in California. Unfortunately they’re not as good for us as you’d think.

Prime Time in Crypto

By Marc Rubinstein | November 16, 2021 | 0 Comments

No one gives a clearer explanation of how financial institutions work than ET contributor Marc Rubinstein, and his primer on prime brokerage services (and its extension into crypto) is no exception.

The NFL Has a Gambling Problem

By Rusty Guinn | November 15, 2021 | 35 Comments

The outcomes of NFL games are inordinately influenced by officials relative to other sports. This is not new. The narrative environment faced by the NFL in 2021, however, IS new.

I’m not sure they’re ready for it.

Taiwan

By Harper Hunt | October 27, 2021 | 0 Comments

Jonathan Plotkin is a longtime ET reader and brilliant cartoonist. For years he’s been sending Ben illustrations inspired by our notes and we’ve been dying…

The Mandarin Class

By Ben Hunt | October 22, 2021 | 62 Comments

I don’t think there’s anything illegal in how Fed governors trade their personal accounts.

No, I think it’s much worse than that.

When Narrative Takes Flight

By Rusty Guinn | October 14, 2021 | 18 Comments

We find ourselves together now at the stage of the Widening Gyre in which your political identity now determines the reality you wish to accept about three days of moderate operational difficulties at the ninth largest global airline, as measured by passenger-miles.

No Time to Die: China Banks Edition

By Marc Rubinstein | October 7, 2021 | 5 Comments

With $300+ billion of assets, Evergrande is big, but if you want REALLY big, take a look at the balance sheets of Chinese banks.

ET contributor Marc Rubinstein was there at the beginning when Chinese banks went public, and he’s here now to review the sector.

How Lucky You Are To Be Alive Right Now

By David Salem | October 7, 2021 | 3 Comments

ET friend and contributor David Salem is back!

Here with his Constitution Day address at Middlebury College, David makes the rich tradition of academic speeches richer still, with nods to the Founders and Vitalik Buterin alike.

The Uncontained Spark

By Ben Hunt | October 1, 2021 | 15 Comments

There is an uncontained spark in the financial world today, a spark that emerged from the unlikeliest of places, a federal courthouse in Florida.

It’s a spark with the potential to light a searing bonfire under Robinhood and Citadel.

#BITFD

Zeroism and the Allocator Status Quo

By Matthew Edwards | September 21, 2021 | 2 Comments

ET contributor Matthew Edwards pushes back on seven rules that allocators often apply to new managers.

1) We don’t do crypto.
2) We only invest in what we know.
3) We never pay full fees.
4) We prefer fundamental investment strategies.
5) We seek strong alignment of interests.
6) We cannot be greater than x% of a fund’s total assets under management.
7) We require a minimum track record of X years.

Unanchored

By Brent Donnelly | September 15, 2021 | 7 Comments

ET contributor Brent Donnelly starts up where he left off, with a new launch of AM/FX and a new riff on the classic ET note, “Snip!”.

In the immortal words of Hunter S. Thompson, when the going gets weird, the weird turn pro!

Whitestone Bridge

By Ben Hunt | September 11, 2021 | 2 Comments

In 1937, in the midst of a Great Depression, we started building a mighty bridge, not for a war effort, but for a popular movement based on wonder and progress.

We really did that.

Can we do it again?

The Green Protocol: A New Vision for Crypto, Pt 2

By Ben Hunt | September 8, 2021 | 56 Comments

The Green Protocol is a set of rules for the tokenization of symbolic betting markets in positive social good.

I think this is how crypto saves the world.

Our first step on this new path? Let’s plant one billion new trees in North America over the next ten years.

Cursed Knowledge #5: Hot Coffee

By Harper Hunt | September 2, 2021 | 0 Comments

The McDonalds Hot Coffee lawsuit is the archetypal example of nonsense litigation. But there’s a lot more to the story than most people know.

Notes from Camp Kotok 2021

By Brent Donnelly | August 27, 2021 | 4 Comments

ET contributor Brent Donnelly with an end-of-summer compilation of the top–of-mind topics at Camp Kotok!

Prophet of the Pandemic

By Luke Burgis | August 26, 2021 | 14 Comments

Sophocles knew it. Dostoevsky knew it.

Disruption to the biological order and disruption to the social order are one and the same.