In the South Seas there is a Cargo Cult of people. During the war they saw airplanes land
Covid-19 Cargo Cults
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This commentary is being provided to you as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice. The opinions expressed in these materials represent the personal views of the author(s). It is not investment research or a research recommendation, as it does not constitute substantive research or analysis. Any action that you take as a result of information contained in this document is ultimately your responsibility. Epsilon Theory will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. Consult your investment advisor before making any investment decisions. It must be noted, that no one can accurately predict the future of the market with certainty or guarantee future investment performance. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Statements in this communication are forward-looking statements. The forward-looking statements and other views expressed herein are as of the date of this publication. Actual future results or occurrences may differ significantly from those anticipated in any forward-looking statements, and there is no guarantee that any predictions will come to pass. The views expressed herein are subject to change at any time, due to numerous market and other factors. Epsilon Theory disclaims any obligation to update publicly or revise any forward-looking statements or views expressed herein. This information is neither an offer to sell nor a solicitation of any offer to buy any securities. This commentary has been prepared without regard to the individual financial circumstances and objectives of persons who receive it. Epsilon Theory recommends that investors independently evaluate particular investments and strategies, and encourages investors to seek the advice of a financial advisor. The appropriateness of a particular investment or strategy will depend on an investor’s individual circumstances and objectives.
Thanks for sharing this, Rafa. I’ll be sure to give it a listen today.
Came home from Costco on Tuesday with a cargo load of non-perishable food. Hope that doesn’t make me a cargo cultist! In any event, I’ll be able to share with neighbors and my church congregation if things go really bad. If things don’t, my local food bank will benefit as I empty my over-stocked pantry shelves in a few months. Clear eyes. Full hearts.
Hah! A different kind of cargo cult. You’re among friends here on that one I expect.
The cargo cult imagery is one of my favourite analogies - it applies so usefully to so many of our attitudes. We can’t seem to help building narratives, and as soon as the narrative takes over from direct observation we’re susceptible to exactly this. It’s not just for investments - we need predictive formulas to survive - but they do take over. You and Ben are onto something so primal in your analyses, and yet so little considered - it’s a real privilege to be able to follow your thinking.
Cargo Cult musings - hoping maybe a conversation…
Capital = “wealth in the form of money or other assets owned by a person or organization, or available or contributed for a particular purpose such as starting a company or investing.” Primary wealth (I.e. resources) has generally been taken rather than earned, because it is the environment, the planet, and only a few aboriginal cultures saw those resources as something for which equal repayment (replenishment/restoration) was required.
Labour = “work, especially physical or manual”, to produce an actual physical or intellectual benefit.
Economy = “the wealth and resources of a country or region, especially in terms of the production and consumption of goods and services.” Combines wealth both earned and taken, and the labour involved.
Cargo cult = copying the observed forms or processes of a productive activity without a complete understanding of both the mechanics and the necessary inputs involved. Generally directed towards improving one’s standard of living with less labour.
Where does the transition from labour to capital take on the characteristics of cargo cult?
Is cargo cult an explicit form of entitlement, ie the right to or expectation of the enjoyment of benefits you have not either directly produced, or used the stored value of your own direct production to aid someone else’s direct production. Does every degree of separation in the process that removes us from an understanding of what produces the benefit, hit one of our hard wired buttons for entitlement?
Has any “advanced” human culture achieved an economy that didn’t require some form of slavery to function? By slavery I mean a severely unequal return for labour, to different groups within the culture. Thus creating, among other effects, ambitions for lifestyles that embrace endless consumption without genuinely equivalent productive labour, and repayment (restoration) of expended resources. Modern western “economies” appear to be dressed up cargo cult. And with the attendant and inevitable frustrations among those benefiting less or not at all.
It’s all appearing to be an ever ballooning illusion. Maybe why many of us have been beset by a sense of unreality and impending doom for a very long time.
“Clear eyes, full hearts”, “Make, protect, teach” points to an attempt to turn this around, is that a fair description? There’re so many levels to our assumptions, so much narrative, so much hard wired survival strategy. We’ve considered the lilies, how they grow, doesn’t look like they’re toiling or spinning much, we’ll ignore their fragility and brevity and figure we’re entitled to achieve that image long term. Because… Yay Jesus? Yay homo sapiens? Yay me? Not so much Yay the exploited labour… somewhere else. NCov19 has the potential to be quite the little wake up call, ennit?