Sheep Logic
In Part 6 of the Notes from the Field Series, Ben observes that we think we are wolves, living by the logic of the pack. In truth we are sheep, living…
Category: Game Theory
I’m Not Predicting, I’m Observing
George Soros has a great line, one that I’ve stolen many times: “I’m not predicting. I’m observing.” We really don’t have a crystal ball, …
The Evolution of Competition
Over the past few weeks, I’ve had a fight with my wife and email spats with two of my best and oldest friends. In each case, I didn’t recognize th…
The Art of the Probe
We often write about Common Knowledge - the game of markets. It's time to talk about how to play it. So how can you be a better game-player? What are …
Virtue Signaling, or … Why Clinton is in Trouble
Don’t get me wrong. I’m thoroughly despondent about the calcification, mendacity, and venal corruption that I think four years of Clinton™ will …
Dungeons & Dragons
On episode six of the Epsilon Theory podcast, host Dr. Ben Hunt is joined again by Salient deputy chief investment officer Rusty Guinn to talk…
Pressure and Time
Red: [narrating] In 1966, Andy Dufresne escaped from Shawshank prison. All they found of him was a muddy set of prison clothes, a bar of…
The Introduction
In episode one of the Epsilon Theory podcast, hosts Dr. Ben Hunt and Jeremy Radcliffe discuss the origins of Epsilon Theory, how Dr. Hunt came…
1914 is (still) the New Black
There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen. – Vladimir Lenin (1870 – 1924) In 1914, Europe had arrived at…
1914 is the New Black
Man in Black: All right. Where is the poison? The battle of wits has begun. It ends when you decide and we both drink, and…
Inherent Vice
Want to get hours of your week as a professional investor back? Want to reduce pointless portfolio activity and bad use of time with clients? Stop pre…
It’s Still Not About the Nail
Reader reaction to the March 31 Epsilon Theory note, “It’s Not About the Nail”, was probably the strongest and most positive for any note to…
It’s Not About the Nail
Do, or do not. There is no try.” – Yoda, “Star Wars: Episode V – The Empire Strikes Back” (1980) I see it all perfectly;…
Why Take a Chance?
Vinny Forlano: He won’t talk. Stone is a good kid. Stand-up guy, just like his old man. That’s the way I see it. Vincent Borelli:…
The Clash of Civilizations
Thomas Cole, “The Course of Empire: Destruction” (1836) In the emerging world of ethnic conflict and civilizational clash, Western belief in the universality of Western…
Signs and Portents
Young nanny: Look at me, Damien! It’s all for you. [she jumps off a roof, hanging herself] – “The Omen” (1976) When one has…
Mike Tyson: Master Game Theorist
Everyone has a plan until they get hit in the mouth. – Mike Tyson My long-term strategy turned into a 12-hour strategy. – “Survivor” contestant…
Calvin the Super Genius
People think it must be fun to be a super genius, but they don’t realize how hard it is to put up with all the…
The Game of Thrones and the Game of Markets
Two items for the mid-week. First, an invitation to attend a Salient Webinar I’ll be presenting next Thursday, September 18th at 2pm ET, titled: “The Game…