Ben Hunt
Co-Founder and CIO
Ben Hunt is the creator of Epsilon Theory and inspiration behind Second Foundation Partners, which he co-founded with Rusty Guinn in June 2018.
Epsilon Theory, Second Foundation’s principal publishing brand, is a newsletter and website that examines markets through the lenses of game theory and history. Over 100,000 professional investors and allocators across 180 countries read Epsilon Theory for its fresh perspective and novel insights into market dynamics. As Chief Investment Officer, Ben bears primary responsibility for determining the Company’s investment views and positioning of model portfolios. He is also the primary author of materials distributed through Epsilon Theory.
Ben taught political science for 10 years: at New York University from 1991 until 1997 and (with tenure) at Southern Methodist University from 1997 until 2000. He also wrote two academic books: Getting to War (Univ. of Michigan Press, 1997) and Policy and Party Competition (Routledge, 1992), which he co-authored with Michael Laver. Ben is the founder of two technology companies and the co-founder of SmartEquip, Inc., a software company for the construction equipment industry that provides intelligent schematics and parts diagrams to facilitate e-commerce in spare parts.
He began his investment career in 2003, first in venture capital and subsequently on two long/short equity hedge funds. He worked at Iridian Asset Management from 2006 until 2011 and TIG Advisors from 2012 until 2013. He joined Rusty at Salient in 2013, where he combined his background as a portfolio manager, risk manager, and entrepreneur with academic experience in game theory and econometrics to work with Salient’s own portfolio managers and its financial advisor clients to improve client outcomes.
Ben is a graduate of Vanderbilt University (1986) and earned his Ph.D. in Government from Harvard University in 1991. He lives in the wilds of Redding, CT on Little River Farm, where he personifies the dilettante farmer that has been a stock comedic character since Cicero's day. Luckily his wife, Jennifer, and four daughters, Harper, Hannah, Haven and Halle, are always there to save the day. Ben's hobbies include comic books, Alabama football, beekeeping, and humoring Rusty in trivia "competitions".
Articles by Ben:
The Wall Street year-ahead “outlook notes” are like the swallows returning to Capistrano … next year will be a stock-picker’s market, and we should be cautiously optimistic.
But we’re seeing a turn in the weather with our Narrative Indices …
I am 60 years old.
I am a (very) patriotic American.
I have never felt represented by any elected official.
Never.
Structure of Financial Crisis (the bonfire)
Necessary Conditions of Crisis (the kindling)
Catalysts of Crisis (the match)
So What Do We Do About It?
Webinar for Professional subscribers on the catalysts of the next financial crisis, with an epicenter in shadow banking rather than commercial banking.
For the past 28 years, since the death of my father, I’ve been hearing a steady tick-tock in my head.
How do we tell our stories to our children and our children’s children before it’s too late? Before we pass as all humans must pass?
Generative AI is a communion machine.
I thought Israel was the country with the Maginot Line – in the form of the Iron Dome missile defense system – and that the Phony War would resolve into a non-Phony war if Iran were able to figure out a technologically unimagined way to flank that defensive line.
In truth, Iran was the country with the Maginot Line – in the form of proxy armies on Israel’s western and northern borders– and the Phony War has resolved into a non-Phony War as Israel figured out a technologically unimagined way to flank that defensive line.
Each of us has a unique story. A story that makes you you. A story that is the engine of your consciousness. A story that is your thread of life.
A story that today can be inferred from your words by generative AI and restored computationally, so that the thread of life remains uncut.
Everything is about to change.
The question is not whether Trump will accept the election result if he loses. He won’t.
The question is whether a Missionary with actual power will join him.
What we have today is maximum complacency around financial system risk because everyone always prepares for the last war.
We have built a Maginot Line against the big commercial banks failing, by requiring (arguably) crazy high capitalization levels against any risk-taking (i.e. loan-making) activity they might undertake. That’s tough for shareholders and management looking for return on equity, but from the government’s perspective … so what?
But there’s more to the financial system than the big banks, and there’s more to systemic risk mitigation than big bank capitalization ratios.
What happened over the weekend happened. There’s nothing to be done about it now, and I think the last thing you want to do is sell into it today. But over the days and weeks and months to come I think you absolutely want to sell into the forced deleveraging to come, whatever ‘sell into’ means to you.