The Epsilon Theory Archive

“History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes.” Mark Twain said that, or Abraham Lincoln depending on what corner of the internet you find yourself on any given day. Likewise, there are common themes, topics and subjects that run throughout the Epsilon Theory archive. All of our writing is categorized, tagged and organized to be easily accessible, but beware: your search for truth on one matter may very well lead you down any number of rabbit holes (and we hope that it does).

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quant

Volatility

Long-term and short-term market volatility remains low across the board, signaling no immediate change in the market environment. Read more »

podcast

On episode 26 of the Epsilon Theory podcast, we welcome back Rusty Guinn, our executive vice president of asset management, to talk about political markets — a topic just as important to Ben as capital markets. Listen »

quant

Correlation

All markets seem to be reacting in concert to volatile interest rates. Read more »

quant

Momentum

There are a few signs of stress in the stock bull market as breadth is starting to wane. Read more »

quant

Volatility in the 10-year Treasury continued last week with a sharp swing higher in rates. Read more »

note

The public unmasking of Harvey Weinstein as a serial rapist (that’s the word, people) is an archetypical play of the Common Knowledge Game. How does private knowledge become – not public knowledge – but common knowledge? Common knowledge is something that we all believe everyone else believes. Read more »

note

Archetypes are everywhere in markets. In part two of why investor behavior is one of the Things that Matter, Rusty expands on the tendency for the temperament and behaviors of investors to coalesce around archetypes. Read more »

note

You don’t break a wild horse by crushing its spirit. You nudge it into willingly surrendering its autonomy. Because once you’re trained to welcome the saddle, you’re going to take the bit. We are Clever Hans, dutifully hanging on every word or signal from the Nudging Fed and the Nudging Street as we stomp out our investment behavior. Read more »

note

In today’s public discourse, symbols — not facts — have become the center of gravity for almost every civic conflict and debate. Rusty reminds us that when we give in to symbolism, allegory and tribalism we abdicate our responsibility as Citizens. Read more »

podcast

Ben and his guest, Peter Cecchini, Chief Market Strategist at Cantor Fitzgerald, discuss the complexities inherent in applying the principles of modern monetary policy across all economies, developed or otherwise. Listen »

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