Our Observations: The global stock markets appear to have entered a correction with short-term momentum (returns over 22-day period) turning negative in the U.S. and Japan. The stronger European and Asian markets are also approaching negative territory in short-term momentum. Energy markets, however, appear to be bucking the short-term negative trend as crude oil has begun reverse its recent sell-off. Despite the weaker short-term picture, long-term momentum still favors stocks, energy, and metals. We think this is a good indication that we are likely experiencing a correction within a bull market.
Momentum measures the rate of acceleration, either positive or negative, in a security’s price and may indicate which markets are positioned for gains or losses. Investing based on momentum entails establishing long positions in securities with positive recent returns and short positions in those with negative recent returns. Momentum in asset classes may illustrate the development of trends in the market.