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Volatility | April 27, 2017

Posted on April 27, 2017

Our Observations: We think this is an important chart to observe during a sell-off, taking note of extreme levels of volatility as an indication that any sell-off might be reaching an extreme point. As of right now, we see that nearly every segment of the capital market is below the long-term volatility reading. Note that […]

Volatility | April 20, 2017

Posted on April 20, 2017

Our Observations: Nearly every market is experiencing short-term volatility (as measured by 22 days) below long term levels, but some volatilities are creeping slightly higher. We think these volatility levels may indicate an end to the sell-off. If short-term volatility levels were to exceed long term, this would likely indicate that sellers have become overly […]

Volatility | April 13, 2017

Posted on April 13, 2017

Our Observations: Short-term volatility (as measured by 22 days) increased in most assets, but certain stocks assets and metals are approaching their longer-term averages. We think rising volatility along with declining short-term momentum is a relatively strong signal of a bumpy road ahead, especially for risky assets such as stocks and commodities. Market volatility is […]

Correlation | April 12, 2017

Posted on April 12, 2017

Our Observations: Nearly every asset class has experienced an increase in short-term correlation (22 days), and many have risen above their long-term averages. We think this is proof of how interest rate expectations and inflation are driving near-term returns and why it is important to keep an eye on the trading pattern of interest rates. […]

Income Report Card | April 10, 2017

Posted on April 10, 2017

What to Note: The 10-year Treasury Bond bounced off a low rate of 2.34%, which remains inside the recent 2.31% and 2.62% bands.  The rate increased a few basis points, but markets did not rotate into inflationary asset classes like stocks and commodities.  We think it is important to continue to keep an eye on this interest-rate […]

Volatility | April 7, 2017

Posted on April 7, 2017

Our Observations:  Market volatility is an indicator of financial stress. Low or declining volatility environments may indicate favorable periods for equity investments, whereas rising volatility periods may favor sovereign debt and developed market currency exposure. Currently, near-term volatility (22 days) is below long run (12 months) in nearly every asset class, underscoring what has been […]

Correlation | April 6, 2017

Posted on April 6, 2017

Our Observations: The correlation figure measures how each asset return moves in relationship to the broader basket of asset returns listed on the X axis. When correlations are high or rising, it may indicate that economic movements and sentiment are driving the majority of returns, which could potentially make security selection challenging. In recent months, we […]

Momentum | April 5, 2017

Posted on April 5, 2017

Our Observations: Momentum measures the rate of acceleration, either positive or negative, in a security’s price and may indicate which markets are positioned for gains or losses. Investing based on momentum entails establishing long positions in securities with positive recent returns and short positions in those with negative recent returns. Momentum in asset classes may […]