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Volatility | July 20, 2017

Posted on July 20, 2017

Short- and long-term volatility are converging, another indicator that this is a market in a state of confusion. Despite rising volatility, it is still well below historical averages. We think this still provides a good environment for risk assets to perform well. The old Wall Street adage, “Stocks climb a wall of worry”, seems quite appropriate here. […]

Correlation | July 19, 2017

Posted on July 19, 2017

Near-term and long-term correlations are converging, but are still below historical averages. As a result, we think there are many potential options for positive performance through the selection of risk-diversifying assets and individual names. In short, we still see this as a stock picker’s market. The correlation figure measures how each asset return moves in […]

Volatility | June 2, 2017

Posted on June 2, 2017

Our Observations: Brazil stocks and currencies are the biggest movers with a sharp increase in volatility. All other volatility changes were nominal with relatively low overall global volatility separate from Brazil. We believe volatility in Brazil is an isolated incident and shouldn’t spread to other countries. Market volatility is an indicator of financial stress. Low […]

Volatility | May 25, 2017

Posted on May 25, 2017

Market volatility is mixed across various segments of the market. However, short-term volatility is largely below long-term volatility, which supports the bullish case for riskier assets such as stocks and bonds. While volatility did increase in many parts of the market, it still remains muted and therefore isn’t indicating any immediate changes in market condition. […]

Volatility | May 18, 2017

Posted on May 18, 2017

Our Observations: Changes in the risk environment followed no particular pattern. Certain markets like Korea and Hong Kong increased in volatility while most European markets and the U.S. experienced a slight decrease in volatility. In general, risk in stock markets appears to be muted while risk in bonds, currencies, and commodities approaches the long-term volatility […]

Volatility | May 11, 2017

Posted on May 11, 2017

Our Observations: Volatility increased in nearly every asset class as near-term volatility approached long-term volatility. Rising volatility tends to indicate a riskier environment for stocks and commodities, so we think this data adds to the consideration of a possible correction. We think it is prudent to keep an eye on volatility as extreme numbers could […]

Income Report Card | May 8, 2017

Posted on May 8, 2017

Our Observations: The 10-year Treasury ended the week at 2.36%, inside the range that has held for much of 2017 after a volatile few weeks for bonds. The report card is showing some rank changes in many of the credit sectors. We think the volatility in rates is indicative of increasing risks of all types of […]

Income Report Card | April 24, 2017

Posted on April 24, 2017

Our Observations: The 10-year Treasury ended the week at 2.24%, slightly higher than this year’s low of 2.18%. At this point, we are unsure if a new pattern has taken shape or whether this is a reprieve from the range formed earlier this year. However, we think the lower rates and continued outperformance of lower […]