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Correlation | April 26, 2017

Posted on April 26, 2017

Our Observations: Short-term correlations have been declining in nearly every segment of the market. This move is breaking up the somewhat lopsided market that had been driven by interest rates and inflation expectations and provides a potential opportunity for diversification. One of the more notable changes has been the decrease in correlations for U.S. bonds […]

Momentum | April 25, 2017

Posted on April 26, 2017

Our Observations: Short-term momentum (22 days) in global equities continues to decline indicating a state of correction. However, with most markets returning between 0% and -5%, we conclude that the sell-off hasn’t yet reached a point of extreme and is likely ongoing. The overall trend of global equity markets is slightly muddied by the Marcon’s […]

Income Report Card | April 24, 2017

Posted on April 24, 2017

Our Observations: The 10-year Treasury ended the week at 2.24%, slightly higher than this year’s low of 2.18%. At this point, we are unsure if a new pattern has taken shape or whether this is a reprieve from the range formed earlier this year. However, we think the lower rates and continued outperformance of lower […]

Volatility | April 20, 2017

Posted on April 20, 2017

Our Observations: Nearly every market is experiencing short-term volatility (as measured by 22 days) below long term levels, but some volatilities are creeping slightly higher. We think these volatility levels may indicate an end to the sell-off. If short-term volatility levels were to exceed long term, this would likely indicate that sellers have become overly […]

Correlation | April 19, 2017

Posted on April 19, 2017

Our Observations: The price of the S&P 500 peaked on March 1st and has fallen nearly 3% while the U.S. Dollar has fallen 2% relative other major currencies. We believe this has created some unique inter-market changes, including a sharp rise in the short-term correlations (22-days) of gold and silver. Precious metals tend to be […]

Momentum | April 18, 2017

Posted on April 18, 2017

Our Observations: The global stock markets appear to have entered a correction with short-term momentum (returns over 22-day period) turning negative in the U.S. and Japan. The stronger European and Asian markets are also approaching negative territory in short-term momentum. Energy markets, however, appear to be bucking the short-term negative trend as crude oil has […]

Income Report Card | April 17, 2017

Posted on April 17, 2017

Our Observations: The 10-year Treasury yield fell from 2.38% to 2.24% over the past week, breaking out of the trading range it has held all year. We believe this likely signals the beginning of a correction that should favor less risky assets such as Treasurys and cash over riskier credit and stocks. However, we’ve noticed […]

Volatility | April 13, 2017

Posted on April 13, 2017

Our Observations: Short-term volatility (as measured by 22 days) increased in most assets, but certain stocks assets and metals are approaching their longer-term averages. We think rising volatility along with declining short-term momentum is a relatively strong signal of a bumpy road ahead, especially for risky assets such as stocks and commodities. Market volatility is […]