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Momentum | August 1, 2017

Posted on August 1, 2017

Overall, July was very positive for stocks and fairly weak for bonds. Globally, much of near-term momentum has been driven by emerging markets. This trend has been persistent all year and we think it is likely to continue. Surprisingly, commodities have recently turned around, particularly in energy and more specifically oil. This could just be […]

Momentum | July 26, 2017

Posted on July 26, 2017

Near-term momentum in the major European markets shifted negative on weaker earnings, mostly resulting from a stronger Euro which some may see as a competitive weakness. Meanwhile, emerging markets and energy continue to strengthen in the near term with energy signaling a possible rebound. Momentum measures the rate of acceleration, either positive or negative, in […]

Momentum | July 18, 2017

Posted on July 18, 2017

Our Observations: Nearly every asset class is close to 0 in near-term returns, indicating that the market continues to be in a state of confusion. A strong push in emerging markets helped reverse the course of near-term momentum. When combined with strong long-term momentum, emerging markets appear to maintain their position as leaders among stocks. Momentum […]

Volatility | June 2, 2017

Posted on June 2, 2017

Our Observations: Brazil stocks and currencies are the biggest movers with a sharp increase in volatility. All other volatility changes were nominal with relatively low overall global volatility separate from Brazil. We believe volatility in Brazil is an isolated incident and shouldn’t spread to other countries. Market volatility is an indicator of financial stress. Low […]

Momentum | May 31, 2017

Posted on May 31, 2017

The big story in momentum is Brazil, as political turmoil and fears of military mobilization weigh heavily on stocks and currency. However, this does appear to be isolated, as the rest of the emerging markets and Europe continue to exhibit strong short- and long-term momentum, while bonds continue to show weakness, especially at the long […]

Momentum | May 23, 2017

Posted on May 23, 2017

Our Observations: Despite the sell-off last Wednesday and the sell-off in Brazil, global markets are still embracing risk. Both short- and long-term indicators are strong across the emerging markets for both stocks and currencies. Additionally, short- and long-term indicators are still weak across global bonds, particularly on the long end. As a result, we continue […]