February 3, 2014
There was a clear short-term narrative developed in the financial media last week creating a focal point at 102 in the Yen/USD exchange rate. The short-Yen trade is perhaps the most crowded trade in the world right now, so a strengthening of the Yen to break below the focal point is a big deal for market game-playing behavior. The Yen broke below 102 today, which will put plenty of game-playing pressure on levered short-Yen positions in particular, and the entire equity market in general. Be careful out there.
If you want to read more about focal points, check out the Jan. 28 “Flatland” email on the Epsilon Theory website, as well as some of the longer-form notes.