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American Hustle

Posted on November 17, 2016

Irving Rosenfeld:   Did you ever have to find a way to survive and you knew your choices were bad, *but* you had to survive? ― “American Hustle” (2013) Only when I wake up in the morning. Nothing but caper movie quotes today. Seems appropriate.   Doyle Lonnegan: I put it all on Lucky Dan; […]

Optical Illusion / Optical Truth

Posted on May 4, 2016

Portion of original dot map by Dr. John Snow, the founding father of epidemiology, showing the clusters of cholera cases in the London epidemic of 1854. The visual representation of Snow’s data analysis convinced local authorities to shut down the contaminated public well at ground zero of the cholera outbreak, although it would be another […]

You Can Either Surf, or You Can Fight

Posted on January 14, 2016

Kilgore: Smell that? You smell that? Lance: What? Kilgore: Napalm, son.  Nothing else in the world smells like that. – Apocalypse Now (1979) Hello, hello, hello, how low? [x3] – Nirvana, Smells Like Teen Spirit (1991) Outside the bus the smell of sulfur hit Bond with sickening force.  It was a horrible smell, from somewhere down in the stomach of […]

“Suddenly, Last Summer”

Posted on July 29, 2015

A quick Epsilon Theory email and a quick announcement. Announcement first. I’ll be giving a 1-hour webcast on Risk Premia strategies next Tuesday, August 4th, along with Salient President Jeremy Radcliffe and Salient Portfolio Manager Rob Croce, who knows more about the guts of these strategies than anyone should. The webcast qualifies for CE credit […]

Catch – 22

Posted on January 12, 2015

Four times during the first six days they were assembled and briefed and then sent back. Once, they took off and were flying in formation when the control tower summoned them down. The more it rained, the worse they suffered. The worse they suffered, the more they prayed that it would continue raining. All through […]

Narrative Uber Alles

Posted on December 11, 2014

Yesterday the Wall Street Journal ran a front page story titled “OPEC Sees Less Demand for Its Oil in 2015”, as well as another article with the following quote: “OPEC’s output exceeded its quota by 50,000 barrels a day in November, the group said.” That’s all true, and all supportive of today’s dominant Narrative that […]

We Now Return to Our Regularly Scheduled Programming

Posted on December 5, 2014

Hilsenrath Analysis: Friday’s Jobs Report Assures Global Central Banks Going in Two Directions ― Wall Street Journal, December 5th, 9:59a ET Earlier today I tweeted that “I should write a note on Draghi today, but after 2.5 yrs of reviewing the same song and dance I’d rather put out my eye with a rusty spoon.” I feel the […]

Signs and Portents

Posted on December 1, 2014

Young nanny: Look at me, Damien! It’s all for you.   [she jumps off a roof, hanging herself]  – “The Omen” (1976)   When one has little faith, one must survive from day to day signs. – Stephen King, “Bag of Bones” (1998) Criminals are a superstitious cowardly lot, so my disguise must be able to […]