Archives » game theory

Pressure and Time

Posted on June 7, 2016

Red: [narrating] In 1966, Andy Dufresne escaped from Shawshank prison. All they found of him was a muddy set of prison clothes, a bar of soap, and an old rock hammer, damn near worn down to the nub. I remember thinking it would take a man six hundred years to tunnel through the wall with […]

1914 is (still) the New Black

Posted on July 6, 2015

There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen. – Vladimir Lenin (1870 – 1924)  In 1914, Europe had arrived at a point in which every country except Germany was afraid of the present, and Germany was afraid of the future.  – Sir Edward Grey (1862 – 1933)  Last week’s email, […]

1914 is the New Black

Posted on June 29, 2015

Man in Black: All right. Where is the poison? The battle of wits has begun. It ends when you decide and we both drink, and find out who is right … and who is dead. – “The Princess Bride” (1987)  Time is a game played beautifully by children. – Heraclitus of Ephesus (535 – 475 […]

Inherent Vice

Posted on June 22, 2015

Nash: See, if I derive an equilibrium where prevalance is a non-singular event where nobody loses, can you imagine the effect that would have on conflict scenarios, arms negotiations … Charles: When did you last eat? Nash: … currency exchange … Charles: When did you last eat? You know, food. Nash: You have no respect […]

Sometimes a Cigar is Just a Cigar

Posted on May 22, 2015

Neurosis is the inability to tolerate ambiguity. – Sigmund Freud (1886 – 1939) To learn which questions are unanswerable, and not to answer them: this skill is most useful in times of stress and darkness. – Ursula K. Le Guin, “The Left Hand of Darkness” (1969) Is everything connected, so that events create resonances like […]

It’s Still Not About the Nail

Posted on April 14, 2015

Reader reaction to the March 31 Epsilon Theory note, “It’s Not About the Nail”, was probably the strongest and most positive for any note to date. The message in a nutshell: financial advisors of all stripes and sizes would be well-served to do more than serve up old-school diversification platitudes in this Brave New World […]

It’s Not About the Nail

Posted on March 31, 2015

Do, or do not. There is no try.” – Yoda, “Star Wars: Episode V – The Empire Strikes Back” (1980) I see it all perfectly; there are two possible situations – one can either do this or that. My honest opinion and my friendly advice is this: do it or do not do it – […]

Why Take a Chance?

Posted on February 24, 2015

Vinny Forlano: He won’t talk. Stone is a good kid. Stand-up guy, just like his old man. That’s the way I see it. Vincent Borelli: I agree. He’s solid. An effin’ Marine. Americo Capelli: He’s okay. He always was. Remo, what do you think? Remo Gaggi: Look… why take a chance? At least, that’s the […]