Archives » Game Theory

I’m Not Predicting, I’m Observing

Posted on March 2, 2017

George Soros has a great line, one that I’ve stolen many times: “I’m not predicting. I’m observing.” We really don’t have a crystal ball, and it really is a dumb idea to pretend that we do. But what’s not dumb is to keep your eyes and ears open, observing both what the world is telling […]

The Evolution of Competition

Posted on February 7, 2017

Death inspires me Like a dog inspires a rabbit. ― Twenty One Pilots, “Heavydirtysoul” (2017) Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar. ― Sigmund Freud, who probably never actually said this (but should have) Over the past few weeks, I’ve had a fight with my wife, spoiling an otherwise wonderful night out, and email spats with two […]

The Art of the Probe

Posted on December 8, 2016

Slade: How the hell did you know I didn’t have the king or the ace? Lancey Howard: I recollect a young man putting the same question to Eddie the Dude. “Son,” Eddie told him, “all you paid was the looking price. Lessons are extra.” ― “The Cincinnati Kid” (1965) There are only two great movies […]

Virtue Signaling, or … Why Clinton is in Trouble

Posted on September 29, 2016

Hillary Clinton would make a sober, smart and pragmatic president. Donald Trump would be a catastrophe. ― LA Times Editorial Board endorsement, September 23, 2016 Yep, gotta get me some of that pragmatism! It’s code for “typical lying politician”, and of course the LA Times knows it. After opposing driver’s licenses for undocumented immigrants during […]

Pressure and Time

Posted on June 7, 2016

Red: [narrating] In 1966, Andy Dufresne escaped from Shawshank prison. All they found of him was a muddy set of prison clothes, a bar of soap, and an old rock hammer, damn near worn down to the nub. I remember thinking it would take a man six hundred years to tunnel through the wall with […]

1914 is (still) the New Black

Posted on July 6, 2015

There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen. – Vladimir Lenin (1870 – 1924)  In 1914, Europe had arrived at a point in which every country except Germany was afraid of the present, and Germany was afraid of the future.  – Sir Edward Grey (1862 – 1933)  Last week’s email, […]

1914 is the New Black

Posted on June 29, 2015

Man in Black: All right. Where is the poison? The battle of wits has begun. It ends when you decide and we both drink, and find out who is right … and who is dead. – “The Princess Bride” (1987)  Time is a game played beautifully by children. – Heraclitus of Ephesus (535 – 475 […]

Inherent Vice

Posted on June 22, 2015

Nash: See, if I derive an equilibrium where prevalance is a non-singular event where nobody loses, can you imagine the effect that would have on conflict scenarios, arms negotiations … Charles: When did you last eat? Nash: … currency exchange … Charles: When did you last eat? You know, food. Nash: You have no respect […]