Epsilon Theory is Dr. Ben Hunt’s ongoing examination of the narrative machine driving human behavior, political policy and, ultimately, capital markets—an unconventional worldview best understood through the lenses of history, game theory and philosophy.
Ben’s originally from Alabama but now lives out in the wilds of Fairfield County, Connecticut, on a “farm” of 44 acres. While his pre-electrification, dairy farmer grandfather may’ve laughed at his calling his modest spread a farm, Ben’s learned a few things over the years from the farm and its animals, and they’ve helped him become a better investor. Here are his notes from the field in this regular Epsilon Theory feature.
From our A-Team of seasoned subject matter experts, the Narrative is an evolving stream of perspectives and insights on a broad range of financial subjects and asset classes. Please read, enjoy and share.
To understand the impact of catalytic narrative forces, we have to monitor the vital signs of the capital markets they affect. To analyze the big picture through the lenses of game theory and history, we must also examine the details through lenses like volatility, momentum, income, correlation and inflation. These are the indicators of systemic vitality and stress—the fine details we use to fine-tune our worldview. We hope they help you sharpen your understanding of the investable universe.
Dr. Ben Hunt hosts the Epsilon Theory podcast with co-hosts and special guests from financial services, the financial media *gasp* and beyond. The Epsilon Theory podcast is the quickest way to get all of the unconventional perspective, historical context and narrative analysis you’ve come to expect from Epsilon Theory pumped directly into your head.
We’re growing our family of Epsilon Theory contributors to include a broad range of voices on an evolving range of subject matter. If you listen to the podcast, you’ll recognize some of the names as colleagues, partners and friends of Ben from Salient, any number of past lives, and the growing circle of outspoken truth-seekers in financial services and beyond.
Epsilon Theory author Dr. Ben Hunt is frequently quoted in print, radio and TV appearances.
Salient Partners is the proud parent company of Epsilon Theory. Salient is a diversified asset management firm and leading provider of real asset and alternative investment strategies for institutional investors and investment advisors.
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…requesting information on new ideas and approaches for creating (semi)automated capabilities to assign ‘Confidence Levels’ to specific studies, claims, hypotheses, conclusions, models, and/or theories found in social and behavioral science research (and) help experts and non-experts separate scientific wheat from wrongheaded chaff using machine reading, natural language processing, automated meta-analyses, statistics-checking algorithms, sentiment analytics, crowdsourcing tools, data sharing and archiving platforms, network analytics, etc.
Claude Berrou on turbo codes and informational neuroscience
Fascinating short interview with Claude Berrou, a French computer and electronics engineer who has done important work on turbo codes for telecom transmissions and is now working on informational neuroscience. Berrou describes his work through the lens of information and graph theory:
My starting point is still information, but this time in the brain. The human cerebral cortex can be compared to a graph, with billions of nodes and thousands of billions of edges. There are specific modules, and between the modules are lines of communication. I am convinced that the mental information, carried by the cortex, is binary. Conventional theories hypothesize that information is stored by the synaptic weights, the weights on the edges of the graph. I propose a different hypothesis. In my opinion, there is too much noise in the brain; it is too fragile, inconsistent, and unstable; pieces of information cannot be carried by weights, but rather by assemblies of nodes. These nodes form a clique, in the geometric sense of the word, meaning they are all connected two by two. This becomes digital information…
Thermodynamics in far-from-equilibrium systems
I’m a sucker for methods to try to understand and explain complex systems such as this story by Quanta (the publishing arm of the Simons Foundation — as in Jim Simons or Renaissance Technologies fame) of Jeremy England, a young MIT associate professor, using non-equilibrium statistical mechanics to poke at the origins of life.
And finally, check out this neat little game theory simulator which explores how trust develops in society. It’s a really sweet little application with fun interactive graphics framed around the historical 1914 No Man’s Land Ceasefire. Check out more fascinating and deeply educational games from creator Nicky Case here.