Narrative

From our A-Team of seasoned subject matter experts, the Narrative is an evolving stream of perspectives and insights on a broad range of financial subjects and asset classes. Please read, enjoy and share.

Author: Neville Crawley GUEST CONTRIBUTOR
Date: August 22, 2017
Category: Rabbit Hole
Tags: AI, portfolio management, quants, emojis, VR, mushrooms

In which Neville muses on the future of portfolio management, the emotional context of emojis, the supposed rise of econometricians and the efficacy of a mushroom app.

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Author: Neville Crawley GUEST CONTRIBUTOR
Date: August 15, 2017
Category: Rabbit Hole
Tags: AI, algorithms, Facebook, Yuval Noah Harari, cuneiform, Maryam Mirzakhani, math, Claude Shannon, Bell Labs, bots, data access

A couple of weeks back I shared a link to the story of ImageNet and the importance of data to developing algorithms. Ars Technica reports on two ‘at the coalface’ battles over data access with HiQ and Power Ventures fighting with LinkedIn and Facebook over data access. I’m not advocating a position on this but, to be sure, small — and currently obscure — court cases like these will, cumulatively, end up setting the precedents which will have a significant impact on the evolution and ownership of powerful algorithms that are increasingly driving behavior and economics.

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You Still Have Made a Choice | The Five Things that Matter #2

Author: Rusty Guinn
Date: August 10, 2017
Category: Things That Matter
Tags: diversification, volatility, portfolio construction, risk, Kelly Criterion, Rush, Free Lunch Effect, drumming

We must be intentional in our pursuit of real diversification (and the resulting free lunch effect). Portfolio construction and the decisions we make are a chain of linked engagements. We do great harm to our portfolios if we play at diversifying instead of actually doing it.

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AI BS Detectors & the Origins of Life

Author: Neville Crawley GUEST CONTRIBUTOR
Date: August 8, 2017
Category: Rabbit Hole
Tags: AI, artificial intelligence, algorithms, NLP, MIT, DARPA, social science, behavioral science, Claude Berrou, neuroscience, information theory, graph theory, brain, cortex, thermodynamics, Quanta, Simons Foundation, Jim Simons, Renaissance Technologies, origins of life, game theory, Nicky Case

In this week’s installment of the Rabbit Hole, Neville covers DARPA’s desire to build a BS detector for science, Claude Berrou on turbo codes and informational neuroscience, thermodynamics and the origins of life, and a new game theory simulator that explores how trust develops in societies.

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Programmable Money & Auto Public Offerings

Author: Neville Crawley GUEST CONTRIBUTOR
Date: August 1, 2017
Category: Rabbit Hole
Tags: AI, blockchain, cryptocurrency, ImageNet, data, Goldman, Bill Gates, Yuval Noah Harari

Programmable money, AI photography, the impact of ImageNet, the Auto Public Offering, and the paradox of historical knowledge.

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Whom Fortune Favors, Continued | The Five Things that Matter #1

Author: Rusty Guinn
Date: July 27, 2017
Category: Things That Matter
Tags: diversification, volatility, portfolio construction, risk, investing, Kelly Criterion, the meaning of life

On this most important question of risk, we and our advisors often default to approaches which rely on the expectation that the past and present give us profound and utterly reliable insights into what we ought to expect going forward. As a result, we end up with portfolios and, more importantly, portfolio construction frameworks which don’t respect the way in which capital actually grows over time and can’t adapt to changing environments. That’s not good enough.

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Algorithmic Complexes, Alpha Male Brains, and Winnie the Pooh

Author: Neville Crawley GUEST CONTRIBUTOR
Date: July 19, 2017
Category: Rabbit Hole
Tags: big compute, AI, hedge funds, algorithms, machine learning, Taleb, evolution, fund of funds, ALIS, Winnie the Pooh, Douglas Hofstadter, Noah Harari, EFF, Mighty Mouse

AI and humanity continue to compete and cooperate, which makes sense considering that we’re all just complex complexes of algorithms searching for meaning.

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One Model to Learn Them All and AI Is/Isn’t Taking Over the World

Author: Neville Crawley GUEST CONTRIBUTOR
Date: July 14, 2017
Category: Rabbit Hole
Tags: artificial interlligence, learning model, global economy, autonomous learning investment strategies

As artificial intelligence technology evolves, there are two lines of thought: AI is either just about to take over the world or is embryonic and trivial in its achievements to date.

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