Narrative

From our A-Team of seasoned subject matter experts, the Narrative is an evolving stream of perspectives and insights on a broad range of financial subjects and asset classes. Please read, enjoy and share.

Author: Neville Crawley GUEST CONTRIBUTOR
Date: June 22, 2017
Category: Rabbit Hole
Tags: AI, artificial intelligence, quantum computing, video games, Facebook, Silicon Valley, AlphaGo, Ms Pacman, Vicarious, chatbots, FAIR, Bloomberg, brain activity, intelligent machines, Allen Institute, IEE, UCLA, depression

AI is developing its own language as it learns how to learn.

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Chili P is My Signature

Author: Rusty Guinn
Date: June 9, 2017
Category: Things That Matter
Tags: volatility, baseball, portfolio construction, Shakespeare, covfefe, value investing, robo-advisors, risk, correlation

When we build portfolios, we know full well how many options our clients or constituents have, so these three competing impulses drive our behaviors: cynicism, affectation and tribalism.

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Quantum Supremacy, Correlating Unemployment, and Buddhists with Attitude

Author: Neville Crawley GUEST CONTRIBUTOR
Date: June 7, 2017
Category: Rabbit Hole
Tags: big compute, quantum computing, NLP, big data, machine learning, Taleb

In which we discuss dominant AI approaches, the correlation between pr0n searches and unemployment, using verbal behaviors to predict company performance, and antifragile machine learning.

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Complex Systems, Multiscale Information and Strange Loops

Author: W. Ben Hunt, Ph.D.
Date: May 31, 2017
Category: Rabbit Hole
Tags: Google, big data, machine learning, multiscale information theory, AutoML, MIT, one-shot imitation, OpenAI, Elon Musk, Two Sigma, strange loops

AI machine learning, multiscale information and building platforms for practical applications of big data and big compute (AI).

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She Screams, He Kidnaps

Author: W. Ben Hunt, Ph.D.
Date: May 24, 2017
Category: Rabbit Hole
Tags: Silicon Valley, data science, biases, language, memory, NIPS, deep learning, machine learning

Previously I shared some research on how recollections of successive events physically entangle each other when brain cells store them. As a fascinating and different approach to studying memory, in this paper a group of European researchers used Wikipedia page views of aircraft crashes to study memory.

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And They Did Live by Watchfires

Author: Rusty Guinn
Date: May 19, 2017
Category: Things That Matter
Tags: things that don't matter, portfolio construction, active investing, ETFs, liquidity, narratives, performance-chasing, cash

Market returns have continued to defy the odds, but the data, our consultants, our advisors, our home offices and our instincts are telling us that the combination of demographic slowing, stagnant productivity, limited debt capacity, low rates and high valuations isn’t going to end well. Or at a minimum, we remain optimistic but confused.

When it’s hard to see what’s two feet ahead of our own noses, when the game feels rigged, sometimes it feels like we have no choice but to stay at the table and play. After all, it’s the only game in town. And so instead of walking away and taking what the market gives us, we tweak, we tilt, we “take chips off the table,” we “go all in” and we hack, hack, hack at the beams and joists of our own homes for the great bonfire.

This bias to action is a road to ruin. That’s why the endless tweaking, trading and rebalancing of our portfolios takes spot #4 on our list of Things that Don’t Matter.

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